The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
Planet 1 48 Westland Welkin NF Mk. IIClassic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Mantua golden Star. English Brig 1 150 (769) Model Boat KitTamiya 1 25 dt113 jagdpanther sd.kfz173 remote cont motorised vintage tank kitGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Caldercraft Sir Kay Round Table Minesweeper 1 48 Scale (7011)Model Boat Kitsince he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
Mamoli Hunter British Armed Cutter 1767 1 72 MV35 Model Boat KitDe Havilland Mosquito FB Mk. Vi - 1 32 Aircraft Model Kit - Tamiya 60326
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.Trumpeter 05347 model Kit Italian Heavy Cruiser Zara - 1350 Ship Model 05347
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Dusek Le Cerf French Cutter 1 72 Scale D015 Model Boat KitOccre Santisima Trinidad Cross Section 1 90 Scale 16800 Model Boat KitStar Wars Death Star Trench Diarama Kit For Use With X Wing Tie Fighter Model...
Thunder Snow (20-1):Trumpeter 02401 model Kit North American P-51 D Mustang Iv - 124 Scale P51 This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- Warhammer Fantasy Metal Giant Brand New And Sealed Orcs & Goblins Vintage
- Flame Eater Fire Eater Engine Motor Toy Mini Tractor Model Stirling Engine Motor
- HANSA LEMUR MONKEY SITTING REALISTIC CUTE SOFT ANIMAL PLUSH TOY 28cm NEW
- 94BF 2.4G Funny 720P Camera UAV Drone Gift 6-Axis Wide Angle Lens
- 40K Orks Deff Dread metal OOP.
- Cadillac S&S High Top Ambulance Ambulanza 1966 Red White NEOSCALE 1 43 NEO43898
- 1 43 Reliant Regal - AA (Yellow) Vanguards VA22001
- Used Ultra Seven and blackNGA F S
- DC UNIVERSE CLASSICS 6 HAWKMAN FIGURE B
- LEGO city train 60051 60052 60098 7939 7038 full power functions receiver motor
- TgoldNTO blueE JAYS 1992 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS PLATE BY SPORTS IMPRESSIONS
- Action Man - Groups - Set of 4, 8x6 Prints
- 8 x RR17 RRD10 Avenging Knights of the Cleansing Flame OOP metal citadel
- Bronco 1 35 sWS 60cm Infrared Searchlight Carrier UHU CB35212
- Spiderman special edition collection 12in civilian & superhero wear new in box 1
- WINGSLAND M1 Altitude Hold Helicopter 1080P Wifi FPV 25mins Flight Time RC Drone
- 9628 Drone 2.4G 4CH 6-Axis Gyro 720P Drone Funny S15 Performance
- GAZ 21 1 18 VOLGA M21 IST18002 IST MODELS DIECAST WOLGA ВОЛГА ГАЗ 21 1 18
- RIO RI4350 FIAT 0 1914 FARINA 1 43 MODELLINO DIE CAST MODEL
- Schuco Piccolo VW T 1 Toys Museum AG 50132011
- LEGO Star Wars Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle (75104) - NISB
- HASBRO TRANSFORMERS COMBINER WARS VOYAGER CLASS OPTIMUS PRIME ACTION FIGURE
- B.A.T. Battle Android Trooper 1990 G.I. Joe Cobra Original NEW Sealed MOC
- DC GALLERY BATMAN THE ANIMATED SERIES NEW ADVENTURES NIGHTWING PVC FIGURE
- 25mm roman era roman - legionaries 16 figs - inf (18016)
- AFV Club SdKfz 164 Nashorn Anti-tank Gun Carrier AF35164
- Carrera 27560 Evolution 1 3 2 BMW M1 Procar Andretti No.01 1979
- 2 x 2300MaH Massive Upgrade Replacement Battery for Parred AR Drone 2.0 Battery
- Four Rank Mancala (Hus, Omweso, Bao) - travel version
- Corgi 1 50 Scale CC13220 - DAF XF Curtainside & Moffat Mounty - Proctor
- 28mm Painted Horse and Musket FIW Indians
- Fujimi 1 700 IJN Aircraft Carrier Ryujo
- Matchbox Superfast No.38D Camper very light camper mint boxed
- Lego Ideas 21108 Ghostbusters Ecto-1 New Sealed
- Airfix Micronauts Baron Karza - Original COMPLETE A1 Condition
- 1964-1970 Vintage Gi Joe Soldiers M1 Rifle 12 Action Figure
- SPAWN purpleTOR SPECIAL EDITION COMIC BOOK & TRADING CARD ACTION FIGURE1994
- MRRC 1 32ND SLOT CAR MC11131 CHEETAH MO-45A SCALEXTRIC COMPATIBLE BNIB
- ISDT Q6 Pro Battgo 300W 14A Intelligent Digital Lipo Battery Balance Charger NI
- Massive Bundle of Toot Toot toys, police station, fire station & hospital
- Corgi CC10310 AEC Turntable Ladder Wiltshire Fire Brigade Ltd Ed. 0001 of 2010
- SOLIDO 116 Cooper F1 Car
- Lego Star Wars Set 7754
- TRANSFORMERS 1991 G1 RESCUE FORCE CRANE KILLBISON EUROPEAN FIGURE
- Jazwares A-Team 12 B.A. Baracus Action Figure 30 Cm