The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
Legend 1 35 M5A1 Stowage Set for Tamiya AFV ClubClassic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Mechanical Wooden Perpetual Calendar Model Kit 3D Building DIY ToySk. 2 Friedrichshafen FF33E, 1 48, Marivox, Limited, NEWGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Hasegawa 1 48 The Coffin of Acrylic Nakajima Ki-84 Type4 Fighter HAYATE Kit NEWsince he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
Domus 83 40086 - Modelling - Model Church Romanica 9 Domus KitsPit road 1 700 Sky Wave Series Maritime Force destroyer DDH-142 J81
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.Trumpeter 1 48 U.S. Navy F9F-2 Panther
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
DECAL 1 43 SET PEUGEOT 104 (06)Wave Materials HT285 HG Dead-smooth-cut File (Side Sliding Ty From japanEmilo - Activity - Cube of Wood, NIP
Thunder Snow (20-1):Legend 1 35 D007 Humvee TOW Turret Set This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- Vintage Toyquest ANDROIDZ Rolling Battle Robots Mini Figures Bundle x 15
- Tamiya 1 35 scale WW2 German Panther D Ausf D tank model kit
- Eagle Tree Vector FPV with Deans Connector Current Sensor Flying Model RC-LOG
- POP MART MOLLY FINDING BIG EAR MOLLY SERIES 12pc Brand New Blind Box
- (J) triang spot on ERF 68G FLAT FLOAT WITH SIDES - 109
- Transformers Powermaster Optimus Prime - One Owner
- GI JOE PEARL HARBOR BATTLESHIP ROW DEFENDER NEW
- 7 Marvel Now Spider-man Carnage 2099 Spider-Gwen Venom Artfx Kotobukiya Statue
- Mercedes C-Class C63 Amg Team Hwa Season Dtm 2018 L.Auer SPARK 1 43 SG439 Mo
- B9811 Handmade Iron Decoration Collectibles Simulation Motorcycle Model
- Lego Droid Escape Pod - Various - A+ A+
- WWF Hasbro Wrestling Akeem Figure New Sealed
- Tokyo Marui No.25 Electric Hi-CAPA E Muzzle Adapter (Genuine Parts) Japan 175755
- Diamond Select Marvel Minimates Captain Marvel Walgreens Exclusive Boxed SET
- 28mm Bolt Action Chain Of Command Soviet T34 Painted & Weathered R1
- Revell 1 8 US Touring Bike
- Ninco 50635 Ford Sierra RS500 Labatt's 1990 Rally Slot Car 1 32
- 5BE0 Original Syma X8W Drone FPV RC Quadcopter UFO 4CH 6Axis +2MP Camera RTF
- Dinky no 923 - Big Bedford Van Heinz beans vn mint with near mint box original
- 1 43 IXO-altaya 1 43 audi quattro a2 1983 Race Car Die Cast Model
- Matchbox 1 100 Scale DYM36675 - Kenworth Aerodyne Tractor Trailer - Busch
- LEGO Technic 8443 Pneumatic Forrest Tractor - 100% Complete w Box & Instructions
- Playskool Transformers Rescue Bots Large
- Direction Indicator Prewar Train Railway Delay Display Großstädte
- 1 32 scale WWI Spad VIIc.I with Russian Skis model kit by Roden
- COLLECTABLE SCALEXTRIC C2709 A1 GRAND PRIX TEAM SWITZERLAND EXC BOXED
- Motor 1300kv (6s) - Mini Predos
- Vintage GI Joe Mobile Command Center Playset 99% Complete ARAH 1987 Hasbro
- SYMPHOGEAR GX KIRIKA AKATSUKI 1 7 PVC FIG MAID VER
- AUTOart LP700-4 Pink Lamborghini Aventador 1 18 Scale Alloy Model
- SIKU FARMER JOHN DEERE 7530 FORESTRY TRACTOR 1 32 NEW IN BOX DIE CAST METAL 4063
- NOREV 473818, 2017 PEUGEOT 308 SW GT, PEARL WHITE, 1 43 SCALE
- LEGO Star Wars 75186 - The Arrowhead - New Sealed Set
- Transformers deformation Deformation Transformers C-16 Dinobot
- Gi joe viper cobra infantry 1987 ONLY ONE ON EBAY
- DC COMICS SUPERMAN REBIRTH ARTFX+ STATUE (2017) 1 10 SCALE FIGURE